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Executive Summary
Climate Change Science
The California Region
Potential Impacts
Response Strategies
Research Priorities
A Report of the California Regional Assessment Group for the US Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary

Climate change and variability will have important implications for California. The state is one of the most diverse regions - ecologically, geographically and culturally - of any in the world. California's 1.3 trillion dollar economy is the largest in the nation,, and it would rank fifth in the G-7 group of the seven largest OECD economies if it were an independent country. It has the largest population and the greatest diversity of people and environments of any state. A changing climate will potentially impact these people, places and valuable systems.

Key findings of the California Assessment Background: The U.S. Climate Change Assessment Process Scientific Basis for Concern Potential Impacts Developing Informed and Systematic Response Strategies Research Recommendations An Ongoing Process
Key findings of the California Assessment
  • The climate is changing. Climate change and variability pose significant potential challenges to California's businesses, communities, and natural resource and ecological systems.
  • We need to learn more about the dynamics of climate systmes, and the models we use need to be improved to more accurately represent changes and interactions at a regional scale.
  • Building resilience in critical systems is a good strategy and a good investment. We currently have enough information to start responding to climate chagne through cost-effective "no regrets" and "multiple-benefits" strategies.
  • California's water systems are over-appropriated, and water management will remain a critically important issue in California. Climate change will provide new and uncertain challenges. Opportunities exist for efficiency improvements in all water-use sectors.
  • In California, there is a broad and growing recognition of the need to restore and protect the environment while achieving productivity and profitability in the economy. There are measures we should undertake now, both to hedge our bets, and because they are good investments.
  • New partnerships between business, government, communities, non-profit organizations, and the research community will be an important feature of successful research efforts and policy responses to climate change.
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Background: The U.S. Climate Change Assessment Process
The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the White House Office of Science and Technology (OSTP) organized a nation-wide program, in response to direction from Congress, to assess the possible impacts of climate change and variability on the United States and its trust territories. California was designated as a "region" for purposes of the national assessment. This regional assessment is part of the larger U.S. effort. A summary national assessment report, Climate Change Impacts on the United States, was issued by the National Assessment Systhesis Team in 2001.

The National assessment, and the regional and sectoral assessments in the U.S., were asked to address the four general questions to the right.

The California assessment covened a representative cross-section of California's stakeholders - including business, government, non-governmental organizations, and science communitites - to address the issue of potential climate change and variability as outlined in the four questions to the right. The findings are presented in detail in the California Assessment Report.

Four Key Questions Addressed
  1. Identify current stresses affecting the region, its natural resources, and economic sectors (e.g.: issues such as water scarcity).
  2. Consider how climate variability and climate change might either amplify or mitigate these stresses, or create new ones.
  3. Identify new information that would allow people and organizations to better understand the linkage between current stresses and climate change and variability.
  4. Identify beneficial strategies that will help address the stresses created by climate change as well as by non-climate pressures.
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California's complex natural systems and extensive human activities are highly susceptible to climate variability and change. There is broad scientific agreement that global warming is occurring and that climate change and variability pose important challenges. The rate of climate change causes concern because rapid change and increased variability in the climate system may be difficult for both natural and human systems to adapt to.

What is in the Califoria Assessment?
The executive summary gives a brief overview of the California assessment and describes the US Global Change Research Program assessment process.
Climate change science describes the impetus for the assessment including climate change, climate patterns, global warming and modeling climate change.
The California region provides a detailed description of California's population, geography, envirnoment, economy and infrastructure.
Potential impacts zooms in on details of key concerns for water, ecology, economy and people.
Response strategies addresses how we might cope and adapt to potential climate impacts with multiple benefits and no regrets responses.
Research priorities recommends focus on water systems, ecosystems, economic adaptation and regional climate modeling.

Last update: 7 June 2002
This page will be updated as progress continues on research issues of importance to California climate change.

Robert C. Wilkinson is the author/editor/guru of the USGCRP California Assessment. If you have comments/suggestions about the report, please send e-mail to Bob:

wilkinso@lifesci.ucsb.edu

This page sponsored by the California Applications Program

If you have comments/suggestions for this web page, please send email to Mary Tyree:

mtyree@ucsd.edu